Hollywood Stock Exchange
- Thread starter ourchair
- Start date
ourchair
Well-Known Member
When you think it's peaked.
It really depends, as there is no hard and fast rule about it. In some cases, you want to sell a stock because you think it's overvalued already --- in my experence, 8 out of 10 stocks are overvalued prior to opening weekend. That's because everyone knows that opening weekend is teh big thing in box office. According to HSX, most movies make about 25% of their box office in the first week of a four week wide release.
The problem I find is that everyone keeps buying hordes of shares of movies just before opening weekend, and that spikes the value of the film way past the point of where it could realistically have met a box office that matches its share value. The result? Grindhouse shot way up to a value of 89.10 per share, but bombed down to like 50 after opening weekend.
Which in hindsight, was not entirely surprising because it had to fight with Blades of Glory, which was only on its second week (meaning there would still be a lot of moviegoers coming to see it who passed it on opening weekend). I'd say if you're really wanting to play it safe, sell everything before opening weekend unless you're really confident about what moviestocks you want to hold on to. You were talking about moviestocks, right?
Starbonds are relatively safer. They make steadier gains, and nobody day-trades them like the moviestocks (i.e., buying 50,000 shares of a movie and then dumping them within the same day to make a profit).
Status update: I'm currently day-trading Frank Miller's Ronin (FMRON). I've made about $42,350 off it and plan to sell within the day. I also made a nice chunk of change off of Magneto (MAGNT) over the week, with a total profit of $67,000. Yesterday, I made $87,539 dollars from vicious buying and selling. I'm now at $4,915,171.03, and I'm crossing my fingers that I breach the 5 million mark by Tuesday.
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ourchair
Well-Known Member
Stock tip: Frank Miller's Ronin shooting up like crazy. It's not yet on the leader board of hottest gaining stocks, but I'm pretty certain it will be.
Also, this trading day I have made $74,000 in gains, and it hasn't even been 6 hours since the trading day started.
Also, this trading day I have made $74,000 in gains, and it hasn't even been 6 hours since the trading day started.
i sold my spider-man 3 stock now incase of what ourchair said and it didn't meet opening weekend
I made loads on that from start to finish. So I used money to buy small does like 1000 shares of loads of films
I have lots of different types from Shazam! to Dark knight to Halo to spider-man 4 and much much more
my idea been i kept loosing money betting on only 4 films at a time so I spred it out so i have more chances of going up
I made loads on that from start to finish. So I used money to buy small does like 1000 shares of loads of films
I have lots of different types from Shazam! to Dark knight to Halo to spider-man 4 and much much more
my idea been i kept loosing money betting on only 4 films at a time so I spred it out so i have more chances of going up
ourchair
Well-Known Member
I did that at first too, but now I'm trying to play with fewer holdings and more risks.
Here's the thing: If you spread out your investments, you 'diversify' your risk --- your hits and misses will hopefully average out so that you'll earn some money. Unfortunately, this means that on a percentage scale, you might not be earning much. Sure if you earn let's say 20,000 dollars on one week, that's great but that means you've only made a 1% gain on an investment of $2 million.
If you focus your investments, you get a bigger risk of bombing from one holding, but if your instincts are good, then you score big. For example, I took a whopping 12% loss on one of my moviestocks, but since I only placed $30,000 on it, that's okay, because the 10% gain I made on a $1,500,000 dollars worth of another moviestock offset it.
When you break it down that's 10%*STOCK1 - 12%STOCK2 = -7% right? Nope. Because instead of 'equally distributing' across a diversified profile, my investments paid off such that the equation became (150,000 - 3,600) or a net gain of 146,400 dollars against an investment of 1,530,000 for a profit point of 9.5%. Not bad.
The point I'm trying to make is that you have to combine diversity with playing by instincts/reading the news.
Diversity helps minimize your risk and create a steady income but risks minimizing your profits... you'll miss a lot of coulda-gains because you only had 1000 shares in a moviestock that shot up by 22% when you weren't looking. Playing by instinct lives entirely on you making relatively informed and intuitive judgements... but risks some major losses. (Anybody remember that big stock flux when Shia Labeouf was still on and off the fence about being in Indy 4?) However, you get the potential to score big if your hunches and intuitions are right.
Status update: This has been one of the best days ever. I've now made 121,000 dollars. Since the free-trading hours almost closed, I've reshuffled my profile.
Got rid of Frank Miller's Ronin (FMRON) at a $88,000 profit. Sure I could've waited until it made some more, but it was only a 4% gain, and I don't want to risk getting rid of it tomorrow and getting charged 1% ($22,000). Besides, there's almost no news about this project. It was an IPO and the nature of the stock looked like people were going to snap it up for the IPO period and then sell it after. Magneto's still good money. It currently stands at a 28% gain of $74,500 for me.
So my new acquisitions include: Nicole Kidman, Avatar: The Last Airbender, James Woods, Prey, Jeff Bridges, Rise: Blood Hunter, David Morse, Chow Yun-Fat, Zooey Deschanel, and Robert Downey Jr.
Oh look! I just gained $6,000 while typing this.
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:lol:
Here is what I'm invested in :
Some of those are films I wont watch and hated the previous ones but I know they will sell no matter how much they suck
Here is what I'm invested in :
- Spider-man 4
- The Hobbit
- Transformers
- Dark Knight
- Halo
- Incredible Hulk
- Ironman
- James Bond 22
- Shazam!
- simpsons movie
- Superman returns sequel
- Wonder Woman
- Shrek the third
- Harry potter 6
Some of those are films I wont watch and hated the previous ones but I know they will sell no matter how much they suck
ourchair
Well-Known Member
I've said it before I'll say it again: Scoring big on the HSX is not about what films will sell big.
The share prices are based on how highly a film is valued by traders (i.e., how much money they THINK it'll make at the box office). Which means that even if a $10 million dollar film made a $100 million dollars over the course of the four-week period, if you invested in it at a share price of $120 and held onto it during the entire four week period, you'd LOSE money... in spite of the fact that it still made 10 times its own budget.
What you have to invest in is CHANGE, and pay attention to when a stock may or may not be overvalued. For example, Spider-Man 3 is in a really dangerous position right now. It ranges at a share price of 320-340, and share values cap out at 350, so the best you're going to get is anywhere between 10-30 dollars gain. And if the opening weekend is BAD (which I doubt it would be, but I'm trying to illustrate a point here) and the four-week period sees it make 275 million dollars, you'd LOSE a lot of money.
Now the thing is, the movie STILL makes a BIG profit, but as a shareholder, you'd be screwed. So LESSON 1: It's not about what makes money. It's about what makes more money than expected.
Good examples? 300. Initially valued at 100-120. After opening weekend, it did even better than expected and jumped the share value to 195. Ultimately it went down to 175 after the four week period. Also: Disturbia. For most of its development and pre-release period. It was valued at 10-30 per share. It was a surprise success and hit 60.
ourchair
Well-Known Member
Well yeah, they make a hell of a lot of money. But this is a simpler way of looking at what I just said:
If YOU know that it'll make money... then EVERYONE knows it'll make money. Which means EVERYONE buys shares of the movie, bumping the share value up. What you need to decide as an individual, is whether the film in question is overvalued or undervalued.
Someone at the community board told me that up until release, the PRE-RELEASE value of a film reflects trading activity. Meaning that Spider-Man 3 isn't just 300+ a share because it's expected to make that money, but because a lot of people are holding onto it.
So buy shares when you think something's going to go up. Sell when it's changes might have peaked. And don't forget: Maximize your profits from change. That might mean selling stuff you want to keep in favor of getting something else that's about to peak.
You don't know how many times I've sold my shares of James Franco and Justin Timberlake to make short-term profits off of films like Incredible Hulk and Disturbia, and then sold those movies again to buy the actors back and wait for the next moviestock jump.
And oh god, I wasn't able to sell Condemned before it got halted, and now I lost money when it became active again and the price plummeted by 5 points. Now my revenue today is down from +140,000 to +100,000.
Ultimate Houde
UC's Resident Genetic Recombinator
That third level boss keeps killing me
I'm done with this game
I'm done with this game
Friday
Well-Known Member
Huh. I'm still -829,691,474,319,769,600% in my starbonds holdings.
ourchair
Well-Known Member
That's odd considering that it doesn't reflect this bug onto your stats when displayed in my league.
Friday
Well-Known Member
From todays new IPO, a comics based fund.
Now, I may be mistaken, but I don't ever remember Spawn being a Malibu book...
Now, I may be mistaken, but I don't ever remember Spawn being a Malibu book...
ourchair
Well-Known Member
Malibu Comics did the publishing duties for Image Comics during its first year. So yes, Malibu 'published' Spawn, as well as WildC.A.T.s, Youngblood, The Maxx, Savage Dragon and Cyberforce.
It was done as a deal to help Image Comics get its roots in while they winged together how to polish off their own publishing infrastructure.
Friday
Well-Known Member
Huh. I stand corrected.
ourchair
Well-Known Member
ourchair
Well-Known Member
I just made 21,411.50 dollars off the IPO of Narnia 3. I plan to dump it at the end of the day.
Incidentally, Baxter, did you make any money off the Comics Fund?
Incidentally, Baxter, did you make any money off the Comics Fund?
Friday
Well-Known Member
I'm still sitting on it. Its up .46 cents from where I bought it.
ourchair
Well-Known Member
Okay, which one of you lucky SOBs just benefited from a 42.38 point gain in Spider-Man 3?
Cause you know, I didn't buy any cause I don't have the cojones to buy any shares with a three-figure price point.
Cause you know, I didn't buy any cause I don't have the cojones to buy any shares with a three-figure price point.
ourchair
Well-Known Member
Anyone? Anyone?ourchair said:
Well, I realized now that NOT investing in Spider-Man 3 over the weekend wasn't such a big loss. Had I invested a million dollars worth of shares, my return on investment over the $42 gain it made over the opening weekend would have been $112,896. I made TWICE that money off of Narnia's IPO on a smaller investment.
I'm now holding The Jetsons at a current ROI gain of 116% or 135,000 dollars. Also the Blockbuster Warrant option for Pirates 3 is doing pretty good at a 77% gain for me.
Oh and I just crossed the 6 million mark.
