I still personally disagree with Moon Knight, but that's just me. If the show had any dialogue or evidence beyond the moon phases like we see with Shang-Chi and Eternals, I'd feel differently, but for now I choose to go with the Disney + placement. It's pretty clear Hawkeye is December 2024 (we even see the year at some point), so I feel like they have to want Moon Knight in 2025. Plus it being in 2025, doesn't crowd that time period which already has Shang-Chi, TF&TWS, and Far From Home. Like I said this is just my personal opinion though.Like you said I believe due to the nature of Moon Knight's show and the fact the moon phases not only are accurate to the days and the passing time but also shown accurately in the end credits of each episode as the series moves forward and that shows it's something that was considered for the series when planning it and therefore can be used as a way to judge the series placement. Admittedly it is something that they can easily retcon later and due to covid messing up how things went it just might as they said. As for Love and Thunder like you said the moon phases is not something any film or show will generally take into account and can't be used to judge everything, I believe Love and Thunder is vauge enough to use wherever Disney+ places it unless anything shows up to reveal the placement better.
I have no issue using the Disney+ placement when nothing else really shows one, even I placed Moon Knight in 2025 first originally because of it. However if anything does a better job of placing an installment like with Eternals, Shang-Chi or now Moon Knight I definitely use that instead.