DIrishB
The Timeline Guy
It's a theory based on the facts currently available.
EDIT:
ABC has released the return date of AOS for March 8, so even earlier than you suspected. That only leaves 7 weeks for Agent Carter. ABC originally planned to premiere Agent Carter season 2 on January 5, 2 weeks earlier, but they had to push it back because of the State of the Union address, which is scheduled for January 12. Before that delay, it worked perfectly for a two-hour premiere and then 8 weeks following. I wonder what they'll do now. Likely a two-hour finale, but where will the other extra episode go?
I have a feeling either AoS will return with a 2 hour premiere, or air possibly two episodes on one night for the CA-Civil War tie-in episodes.
So assuming there are 22 episodes in the season, there will be 12 left after the break. If we get one episode a week, the second half of the season for AOS will be March 8 - May 24. But, if one week is a double header (I assume probably the finale rather than the winter premiere or the week leading into Civil War), then it will be finished by May 17, as you said.
I guarantee it will end May 17 to tie into and capitalize off the Nielsen Sweeps week (antiquated and ineffective a system as it is).
They'll likely do a two hour finale on May 17. Season 2's final two episodes aired the same night, and combined with aligning with Sweeps week, that makes most sense.